WP3

IMPROVING THE RESILIENCE OF THE URBAN SYSTEMS TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

The aim of this WP is to develop innovative land use and governance strategies to help African cities mainstream climate risk management, reduce vulnerability and improve coping capacity and resilience towards climate change. The focus of the work is on formulating urban planning and land use strategies in response to current and future climate risks and vulnerability - building on an understanding of underlying socio-economic and environmental trends. Important adaptation potentials for cities are connected to improved land use and the localisation and standards of urban structures and critical infrastructure (Wilbanks et. al 2007). Urban planning and land management are essential (but obviously not the only) tools for policymakers to develop urban structures resilient towards climate change and build capacity at local level for sustainable city development, linking adaptation and mitigation measures and improving livelihoods and quality of life for the urban population. This presupposes, however, a well functioning planning and governance system and implementation of development programs funded through joint private and public financing -- based also on well functioning land tenure institutions. In African urban areas this is only partly the case as informal institutions and spontaneous urban development and squatting are widespread, and the capacity of the formal planning systems and institutions is limited. Urban development is characterized by both planned urban development and by informal settlements with limited technical infrastructure and alternative land tenure systems. These informal settlements are often located to hazard prone areas and characterized by above average poverty and vulnerability and limited capacity to cope with disasters at household and neighbourhood levels (Sjaastad & Cousins 2009, Rakodi 2006, Payne et al 2007). In order to understand the interrelation between urban structure and risk & vulnerability towards climate change, both the actual urban structure and the formal and informal planning systems must be understood and assessed.
An analysis of the cities’ governance and planning systems will describe the relation between the hierarchical system, the market and the network mode of governance (Rhodes 1997, Jessop 2000, Klijn and Koppenjan 2000, Sørensen og Torfing 2007) Part of the analysis will be to investigate the present mode of governance in relation to climate risks, and how it may contribute to the effectiveness of the planning system towards climate-related disaster and changes in socioeconomic vulnerability. Special emphasis will be given to the governance and land tenure of informal housing areas. Land use strategies will be developed within the framework of good governance (Agere 2000, UN ESCAP 2009) and collaborative planning (Healy, 1997), and inspired by research on innovation networks (von Hippel 2007). This implies that innovation of planning and governance and the making of strategies should be embedded in an interactive process with substantial participation from local stakeholders at various levels. This WP utilize knowledge produced in WP 1 and 2 , but new knowledge, essential for decision support and strategic planning, will also be produced in WP3. The research effort will be related to the urban neighbourhood types which are being used throughout the CLUVA project. Main cases will be Dar Es Salaam and St. Louis, where already some work has been done (Kiunsi & Lupala 2009, Diagne & Ndiaye 2009). The WP will thus consist of three tasks, of which the two provide relevant knowledge for the use in the third task, where actual strategic measures are discussed and decided upon.

Task 3.1 Governance and planning systems: capacity to cope with land use and climate change induced disasters
It will investigate the extent to which disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation is integrated into existing urban planning and governance systems, how robust is the land use related governance system, and how are plans and strategies actually implemented. The task will result in specific analyses of the governance system in two selected case studies with recommendations on how to improve the integration of disaster risk management and adaptation into the planning and governance system. Moreover it will point towards relevant stakeholders for task 3.3.

Task 3.2 Land use indicators
It will contribute by mapping and analysing urban structures at city and community level in two case cities, and develop a set of indicators to identify high risk areas and vulnerable communities. Some mapping layers and themes will be based on results from WP 1 and 2, and will be combined with data and basic registrations of e.g. urban functions, social geography, livelihoods and mobility. A typology of districts will be developed and each type assessed for the factors of hazard exposure and vulnerability; a set of indicators for high risk and vulnerability will be identified; and high risk areas and vulnerable communities will be mapped in the selected case areas as input for the work task 3.1.

Task 3.3 Development of innovative land use and governance strategies to enhance resilience of urban areas towards climate change
It will mainly be based on knowledge developed under the other WP3 tasks and information from WP1 and WP2. In response to current and future risks and vulnerability scenarios, different land use and governance options will be identified and selected. From these options, a coherent and integrated urban planning approach will be developed with substantial stakeholder involvement. The main role of the researchers will be to synthesize and identify different options for adaptation and characterize potential benefits and barriers of each. Through stakeholder workshops innovative strategies will be prioritized and selected towards a broad city adaptation strategy. As input to the work viable adaptation strategies will be identified via production of an exemplary of strategies, measures and instruments used in comparable cities. The aim is that the city will have spatial climate adaptation strategy describing: What are the most important problems and hazards and vulnerabilities the city? When and where are they likely to occur? What are appropriate spatial levels and instruments for disaster risk management today and in the future, including themes such as e.g. household vulnerability, development of new housing areas, public awareness raising, green structure development, infrastructure location and standards, and flood and water management. Are these instruments and measures viable and what are some of the barriers to introducing them? How do various options compare through ranking? What set of policies and strategies constitute a coherent approach to sustainable urban development?